The Ghosts of Bromance Past & Present and the Feuds Yet to Come: US-India Relations Under Trump 1.0 & 2.0
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) meets President Donald Trump in Manila, Philippines in 2017
Credit: Office of the Prime Minister of India / Wikimedia Commons
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Donald Trump of the US first met on a warm summer afternoon in June 2017. Their relationship, like the day, had a warm beginning – literally – as Mr. Modi approached Mr. Trump with his iconic bear hug. The two remained rather friendly for most of Mr. Trump’s first term. Now, in 2025, President Trump returns to the White House for a second term with a popular mandate and an unapologetically “America First” agenda. Will US-India relations be business as usual or does the future have disputes, quarrels, and obstacles in store for the two leaders?
The camaraderie between Mr. Trump and Mr. Modi during the former’s first term was well known. In 2019, Prime Minister Modi and President Trump spoke to 50,000 members of the Indian diaspora for “Howdy Modi,” an event for the leader as he visited the US for the UN General Assembly. A year later, India returned the favor by welcoming President Trump with “Namaste Trump” (transl. Welcome Trump), a rally of 125,000 attendees. At both events, the pair complimented each other: to Trump, Modi was “one of America's greatest, most devoted and most loyal friends” and to Modi, Trump was “my friend, a friend of India, a great American president.” The bromance was palpable.
Yet, there is more to this relationship than just verbal pats on each other’s backs. President Trump has been known to like ‘strong’ leaders and “people with power,” as his former aides put it. Mr. Trump never took leaders that he found ‘weak’ seriously, like French President Emmanuel Macron who he called “snobbish” and “preachy.” Among those whom Mr. Trump looked upon fondly was Prime Minister Modi. Security was a major area that attracted the attention of the two leaders. In 2018 and 2020, India and the US signed agreements that would allow for intelligence sharing to aid in counterterrorism operations as well as increase collaboration between their respective militaries. Towards the end of Mr. Trump’s first term, India announced a $3 billion deal to procure advanced military equipment from the US. Like any relationship, this too came with its own set of issues. In 2019, after labeling India as “tariff king” for its high import duties on US goods, the Trump Administration removed India’s preferential trade status, which came only a year after it issued tariffs on Indian aluminum and steel. Later, India responded with retaliatory tariffs on 28 American-made goods. The 2020 visit to India by President Trump appeared to cool relations but simultaneously, negotiators failed to reach a US-India trade deal that was meant to resolve these issues.
Another characteristic of Trumpian foreign policy that Prime Minister Modi appreciated was Mr. Trump’s silence on Indian affairs. Against the backdrop of the Namaste Trump rally were riots in Delhi against the Citizenship Amendment Act, a law adopted in December 2019 that expedited asylum claims by non-Muslim seekers from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, the three Muslim-majority neighbors of India. Paired with an effort to weed out illegal migrants and verify citizens, Indian Muslims feared disenfranchisement. By the time the government quashed the riots, 53 people had been killed, 40 of whom were Muslim and the rest Hindus. When asked to comment on the situation and the newly introduced law, Mr. Trump said it was “up to India” and went so far as to praise Prime Minister Modi for promoting religious freedom. Similarly, the situation in Kashmir has been a stain on India’s reputation abroad for several years now. Overlapping territorial claims by India and Pakistan, high military buildup, and militant insurgencies have plagued the lives of Kashmiris for decades. In 2019, the Indian Government revoked Kashmir’s special status, stripping it of autonomy. The controversial decision prompted unrest in the valley and the government initiated an internet blackout and a military clampdown with rubber pellets and tear gas; nearly 100 civilians were injured in the first three weeks. Matters are only made worse by insurgent groups loyal to Pakistan whose attacks across the valley have killed hundreds in the last few years. President Trump later offered to mediate the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, claiming Mr. Modi asked him to do so but this was walked back and instead, Mr. Trump deferred to non-interference once again. That President Trump did not speak up when such despicable actions were being taken against Indian citizens spoke to his acknowledgment of the Prime Minister’s need for non-interference in the matter.
Much like Mr. Trump’s first term, his second contains just as many opportunities for the bromance to flourish and disputes to rise. BRICS, a coalition of emerging economies that intend to be an alternative to the Western model of global governance, may be the next target of President Trump’s ire. Composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the group first met in 2009 in order to counter Western dominance. Just over 15 years later, BRICS has expanded, bringing in Ethiopia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Iran, and the UAE. In an effort to de-dollarize the global economy, the bloc has been in favor of using its own currencies instead but President Lula of Brazil went further by proposing the creation of a BRICS-wide currency, though he failed to get bloc-wide support. India has much to gain from intra-BRICS trade but President Trump lashed back at the beginning of his second term, saying “There is no chance that BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, or anywhere else, and any Country that tries should say hello to Tariffs, and goodbye to America,” threatening 100% tariffs against bloc members. BRICS and other groupings focused on specific issues have become a mainstay of Indian foreign policy in recent years because they bolster Prime Minister Modi’s notion of strategic autonomy at the international level – the idea that no other power can have a veto on Indian affairs. We can expect the two leaders to be at loggerheads over the US-BRICS balance in the global economy.
Another bloc that is important to Indian security is just as important to American security: the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or simply the Quad. Consisting of India, Japan, Australia, and the United States, the Quad was initially born in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami but evolved into a security group that met the increasingly greater need to counterbalance Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. Curbing Chinese influence has always been on Mr. Trump’s agenda, which is why the Asian power was recently hit with a barrage of US tariffs, fulfilling a series of promises made by the President on the campaign trail. As such, the Quad can potentially play a significant role in President Trump's foreign policy to push back against China, and the administration has already shown interest in the bloc. Besides the fact that Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar had a front-row seat to Mr. Trump’s inauguration, one of the first meetings Secretary of State Marco Rubio had in his new capacity was with the foreign ministers of the Quad, reaffirming the need for a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” And so the bromance continues.
Tariffs and executive orders have been the defining characteristics of Mr. Trump’s first few weeks in office. Following through on promises made at rallies before he took office, President Trump is using tariffs through executive orders as a tool, supposedly to both gain extra revenue for the government as well as pressure trade partners into fixing trade deficits and giving concessions. The most recent example would be when he threatened 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and, in response, both neighbors announced heightened border security measures, though analysts point out that they are not entirely new initiatives. Carried over from his first administration, President Trump’s qualm with India on the trade front is twofold: a trade deficit that has nearly doubled in the last decade and high tariffs in India on American-made goods. At the beginning of February, in anticipation of Mr. Trump’s tariff spree hitting India, the Indian government cut import duties on several goods from which US exporters were already bringing in billions of dollars: heavyweight bikes (targeting Harley Davidson), satellite ground installations, and scrap metals, among other products. The agricultural market is still largely inaccessible for US exporters as tariffs protect Indian farmers but several tariffs on nuts, grains, and fruit were removed in 2023. Analysts feel President Trump may demand further cuts. For now, India has dodged Mr. Trump’s tariffs with its own reduction of trade barriers. It seems even Mr. Modi’s firm strategic autonomy stands no chance to the President brandishing tariffs.
Like any relationship, the Modi-Trump bromance has had its challenges, and it is likely to face even more in the next four years. There is still potential for there to be smooth sailing in some areas, like politics and security. Just recently, President Trump suspended an investigation by the Justice Department into bribery allegations against Gautam Adani, the second richest man in India and the benefactor of several infrastructure projects by the Modi government. The Quad has already gained the attention of the Trump Administration and so has India’s mutual need to counter China. Unlike other fields, Mr. Trump may not be so forgiving on trade. India has survived the first salvo of US tariffs; whether it can survive the second is yet to be seen. Bromance can only take Mr. Modi so far.