From the People’s Power Revolution to Bong Bong Marcos: The Decline of Democracy in the Philippines
President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. of the Philippines giving his inaugural address (2022)
Credit: Rey Baniquet, Presidential Communications Operations Office / Wikimedia Commons
Introduction
In February of 1986, two million Filipinos marched on Epifanio de los Santos Avenue in Metro Manila to protest against political oppression, economic decline, internal corruption, and the rule of President Ferdinand Marcos. Under the direction of Leader of the Opposition, Cory Aquino the Filipino people famously overthrew their dictatorial President and established a new democratic constitution for the Philippines. Marcos and his family fled to Hawaii with their diminished image when they had once been seen as heroes against Japanese occupation and saviors to the Philippines. Yet, only 36 years later, Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos Jr would win the race for Malacañang Palace and become the 17th President of the Philippines. Despite the efforts of the People’s Power Revolution in 1986, and the successive actions by post-martial law Presidents, since 2016 there has been a trend of democratic decline in the Philippines, starting from the autocratic former President Rodrigo Duterte. Duterte has set a dangerous precedent for Filipino democracy during his administration, and the dictatorial history of the Marcos family combined with the historical revisionism propagated by Bong Bong creates a genuine threat for the future of Filipino democracy.
The People’s Power Revolution and the Downfall of Marcos
President Ferdinand Marcos first came to power in 1965. However, following threats by Communist agitators and Muslim separatists, Marcos signed Proclamation 1081, placing the Philippines under Martial Law. While Marcos claimed that the action was meant to protect the republic and reform society, the action granted Marcos dictatorial power until his downfall in 1986. During the Martial Law Period, at least 70,000 lawyers, church workers, human rights activists, and other opposition leaders were imprisoned with at least 35,000 tortured and 3,200 extrajudicial killings conducted by the Marcos regime. The Marcos family accumulated an estimated $10b of wealth even as the nation was in the grips of poverty. Political repression was the norm under martial law and little semblance of a liberal democracy existed. Only after the People’s Power Revolution in 1986, with popular demonstrations of over two million Filipinos in the streets of Manila would Marcos's rule end and democracy return to the Philippines through the 1987 Constitution. Yet, less than 40 years after the revolution, respect for democratic values would be trampled by strongmen leaders empowered by historical revisionism.
The Beginning of Democratic Decline: Duterte’s Autocracy
While the decades following the 1986 Revolution couldn’t be described as a return to full liberal democracy, they were certainly steps in the right direction. While political corruption prevailed and political dynasties maintained their grip over Philippine politics, there continued to be a common agreement for respect for democratic values. Yet, the election of Former President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016 massively changed the trajectory of Philippine politics. Duterte openly attacked democratic norms and engaged in thousands of extrajudicial imprisonments and killings as part of his “war on drugs.” Critics of Duterte’s policies, including journalists, senators, and other members of civil society were repressed and arrested. Sol Inglesias argues that this wave of violence in 2016 was the beginning of democratic backsliding in the Philippines, as these killings created an environment of fear that has given Duterte the means to engage in his autocratic behavior. Duterte’s autocratic policies of political repression and high levels of violence led the Philippines to go from 65 in 2016 to 55 in 2022 in Freedom House’s democracy rankings. Yet, despite Duterte’s lack of respect for human rights and democratic norms, he remained extremely popular among the Filipino people. Duterte’s strongman politics kept him within the 80% approval rate range throughout his six years in office. While this number has been partially attributed to the role of social desirability bias (SDB) in polling data by some scholars, it remains evident that Duterte maintains significant public support at home.
Duterte’s popularity in the face of his strongman autocratic leadership can be partially attributed to the political culture of the Philippines. A 2017 Study by Pew Research found that only 15% of Filipinos were fully committed to liberal democracy while 80% of respondents expressed openness to authoritarian leadership such as Duterte. Additionally, many Filipinos see democracy as being based around elections, rather than liberalism, leading to tolerance of curtailing civil liberties and meddling in institutions. Furthermore, Duterte can trace his lineage back to the Duranos and Almendras, the two most powerful political dynasties in Cebu, where Duterte has previously served as Mayor of Davao. Political dynasties and elites dominate Filipino politics, providing Duterte with a political edge in the polls, which he utilized to the fullest extent. He further established his political clan with his daughter, Sara Duterte having been elected Vice-President in 2022.
Following Duterte’s precedents, the Philippines has been following the global trend towards autocratic leadership and authoritarianism that has risen globally in recent years. As liberal democracy becomes less respected and strongman rulers more favored by the Philippines, the potential for further democratic decline remains strong. Duterte has backslided the Philippines towards competitive authoritarianism with his strongman policies. The dangerous precedents of Duterte, combined with a wave of authoritarian nostalgia for the Marcos’ paved the way for the unexpected victory of the son of a dictator, Bong Bong Marcos.
The Victory of the Marcos: The 2022 Filipino Presidential Election
Despite the exile of the Marcos to Hawaii, the Marcos name would remain prevalent in Philippine politics post-revolution. After the death of Ferdinand Marcos in 1989, the family returned to the Philippines and using their stolen wealth, continued being a prominent force in Philippine politics. Ferdinand Marcos’ wife, Imelda became a Congresswoman, Bong Bong’s sister became a senator and governor, while Bong Bong himself was a governor, congressman, and senator. Through this capacity as one of the most prominent political dynasties, the Marcos family rebuilt their image and engaged in historical revisionism. Through the heavy usage of social media, mass misinformation has been propagated around the legacy of Marcos, leading many Filipinos to view Marcos in a more positive light.
This historical revisionism propagated by the Marcos family has made the Marcos name no longer taboo broadly among Filipinos, propagating the idea that the Martial Law period was a golden age in Filipino history. With the revisionism of the Marcos image, Bong Bong was able to propel himself into the frontrunner of the 2022 elections, combined with the political alliance of the popular Dutertes, with Sara Duterte being Bong Bong’s running mate. Thus, despite Marcos's pedigree, he won the 2022 Presidential election with around 60% of the vote in a landslide victory.
The Return of Authoritarianism? Bong Bong Marcos’ Presidency
The already tenuous state of Filipino democracy combined with the election of the son of a dictator has led to much speculation about the future of Filipino democracy. Marcos's use of misinformation to create a dangerous myth around Ferdinand Marcos remains a dangerous precedent for Filipino politics. Misleading Filipinos into believing that the period of authoritarianism was a golden age leaves the possibility of Filipinos questioning the viability of liberal democracy, leaving the nation more vulnerable to strongmen and authoritarianism. Yet despite the legacy of his father, Bong Bong has been more lax in his autocratic tendencies than his predecessor Duterte. However, the threat to Filipino democracy remains high. Marcos has targeted leftist political leaders via “red-tagging,” intimidating and threatening leftist opposition to the government. Furthermore, despite stating that the war on drugs would have a new face, many extrajudicial killings by the Duterte administration have continued under Marcos. Political institutions are firmly in the hands of the executive with the judiciary branch having 13 out of 15 justices appointed by Duterte and the legislature firmly controlled by pro-Duterte and Pro-Marcos politicians.
The future of democracy in the Philippines remains tenuous, and while at the moment it seems that the Philippines will maintain its “competitive authoritarianism” it is yet to be seen if there will be any shift in the trend towards authoritarianism. With authoritarian leaders of old being seen with a new reverence, the suppression of media and opposition forces, and a decline in checks and balances, the future of Filipino democracy is in great danger and there remains a high risk of the emergence of full authoritarianism in the Philippines.